By the time you read this piece, the midterm elections will have passed, their results known, and their implications dissected and debated in the media.
At the time I am writing this, the democrats are overwhelmingly favored to win the House, and the republicans will retain control of the Senate. As the results come in, it seems likely that the polling was more or less correct.
Broadly speaking, the election results at the time of this writing are generally in lockstep with the conventional wisdom, something which might surprise those of us accustomed to shock and dismay, since the 2016 election.
Reporters and laymen have become more distrustful of pollsters since 2016, not entirely without cause. However, it seems that this lack of trust was somewhat misplaced, if the results at the time of this writing hold.
Democrats won the House, flipping vulnerable republicans and holding on to enough seats to form a majority. They did not win the Senate, mostly because far more democrats than republicans were up for re-election, creating a structural disadvantage.
Turnout is projected to be far higher than usual for midterm elections, possibly in excess of 50 percent, a marked improvement from 2014, when turnout was beneath 40 percent.
Democrats are projected to hold 24 of 50 governor’s seats at the time of this writing, which was also predicted by the polls. In short, it appears that the conventional wisdom has gotten the 2018 elections right.